Arrhenius was wrong

It is widely believed that Svante Arrhenius correctly predicted the rise in temperature. Perhaps you are unaware that he did this based on seriously flawed spectroscopic data. His basic formula was derived from the Stefan-Boltzmann equation Equation (3) in (Arrhenius, 1896) reads:

eqn3 Where K = a constant
n = 1-albedo
b = atmospheric IR absorption for transparency (1-b) he used table III Table III
see also: http://hps.elte.hu/~zagoni/Arrh2.htm Arrhenius assumed that n is 0.925 for the "water covered parts". Quote: "For the earth's solid crust we may without sensible error put n equal to 1, if we except the snowfields, for which we assume n=0.5." The present accepted value for the earth's albedo is 0.39, which corresponds to n = 0.61. I calculated spectral emissivity using modtran 3 for [CO2]=370ppm and [CO2]=740ppm, using a tropical temperature profile http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/cgimodels/radiation.html CH4 = 1.7 Tropospheric Ozone (ppb) = 28 Stratospheric Ozone Scale Factor = 1 T offset = 0 Constant Water Vapor Pressure H2O vapor twiddle factor = 1 Tropical Atmosphere Model No Clouds Sensor Altitude = 100 Looking down [CO2] = 370 ppm INTEGRATED RADIATION ENERGY FLUX= 287.875W/m2 BOUNDARY TEMPERATURE = 299.70 K EMISSIVITY = 0.6293
[CO2]=370 ppm
[CO2] = 740 ppm INTEGRATED RADIATION ENERGY FLUX= 284.672W/m2 BOUNDARY TEMPERATURE = 299.70 K EMISSIVITY = 0.6223
[CO2]=740 ppm
BLACKBODY: T=299.7 K FLUX 457.44W/m2 Using Arrhenius with these modern day spectra:

T4 = K/(1+ne)

where n = 1-albedo = 0.61 and e emissivity, follows K= 9540491123 for T=288.15 K (15 oC)
[CO2](ppm) e T (oC)
370 0.6293 15
740 0.6223 15.22270447
We see that Arrhenius gives us a temperature increase of 0.22 K for CO2 doubling.... Arrhenius was convinced that the atmosphere would be opaque for IR at levels of 40x C02. He clearly based himself on the wrong CO2 IR spectrum:
Spectrum comparison Finally a comparison between the absorption values for CO2 for different publications: Arrhenius 1896 (derived from Lunar spectrum), Arrhenius 1901 (laboratory measurements) and a modern calculation using Modtran3. The 1896 values are clearly to high.
Arrhenius vs. Modtran see also http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/arrhweart.htm and http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/arrhenius.html Hans Erren Ref: Svante Arrhenius, 1896, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground, The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science [fifth series] April 1896. vol 41, p237-275 Svante Arrhenius, 1901, Ueber die Wärmeabsorption durch Kohlensäure, Annalen der Physik Bd 4. 1901, p690-705.
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