A cool realistic business-as-usual scenario

by Hans Erren

posted 8 february 2007

Using the Lutz et al. median population estimate in "The end of world population growth" Nature 412, 543-545, combined with a constant CO2 per capita emission of 1.2 tC (as observed since 1973 by Marland et al.) I created the following alternative emission storyline:

Using Fick law diffusion with 1.7% of pre-industrial CO2 surplus sinks annually,(Dietze) and a climate sensitivity of 1.3 K/2xCO2 (Nir Shaviv) I get the following alternative temperature scenario:

Notice that the technological SRES A1T scenario is without additional CO2 limiting measures.

references:

Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov,  "The end of world population growth" Nature 412, 543-545 http://anquetil.colorado.edu/physics3070/Lectures/L8/nature_population2.pdf

Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2006. Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.htm

Peter Dietze, Carbon Model Calculations, Online: http://www.john-daly.com/dietze/cmodcalc.htm

Nir Shaviv, On Climate Sensitivity and why it is probably small, Online: http://www.sciencebits.com/OnClimateSensitivity