Message: Hi Dano,
Have a look at this graph:
Up to 2030 it doesn't matter much which scenario we follow, they ALL get hotter. After 2030 the big increase is from developing countries like China and India, who just decided in Buenos Aires that they don't intend to limit their output.
So let's wait 30 years to see what really materialises from the above scenario, like the Club of Rome forecasts.
Thanks for the linky Hans.
As you know, the WG1 conclusions are from 2001. Are there any newer results for model suites since then?
Message: LOL talking of ploppedness, dumping a 197 page document could you indicate which pages you consider the most relevant?
Quotes from the Appraisal Summary:
Now this document gives a nice summary of the state of the models, lets see what's improved in five years time.
Don't worry the world will still be there....
Message: Firstly looking at the 1% CO2 increase response graph on page 29:
Up to a factor of 1.3 (500 ppm) after 30 years, there is still a lot of noise in the models, the temperature increase is then between 0 and 1.3 degrees Celsius.
At the CO2 doubling time (after 70 years from start), I quote from page 28:
The main difference from the CMIP2 results is the addition of one or two new models that obtain global mean warming at the high end: ~3 K after 80 years of CO2 increase. Still, the general results shown here are consistent with both the CMIP2 overview and many other studies over the years (e.g., Fig. 9.3 in Cubasch et al. 2001). Global mean warming at the time of CO2 doubling is in the range 1–3 K
I.e. Model Climate sensitivity is 1 to 3 K for CO2 doubling.
In other words we still have plenty time (at least 30 years if CO2 were to rise by 1%, but really - as the CO2 rise is not that fast - until the atmospheric CO2 level reaches 500 ppm to validate which model climate sensitivity is corresponding to real world climate sensitivity.